Learn how understanding the bond yield curve's signals can inform economic forecasts and enhance your investment decisions ...

The yield curve inverted in June 2022, and as we all know, the recession never came. When it flipped positive in 2024, ...

In last week's commentary we spoke about the big bounce of the S&P 500 (SPY) that got us back in the mix of all the key trend lines (50/100/200 day moving averages). And likely we would be stuck in a ...

The U.S. Treasury yield curve, one of the most reliable signals of recession, is flashing red again. As of March 2025, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields remains inverted, a ...

Learn to create a yield curve in Excel and understand its implications for interest rate forecasting. Follow our simple guide ...

My last article on AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) was published a bit more than a month ago. To wit, that article was titled "AGNC Investment: Let Your Profits Run" and was published on February 11, ...

Last week was a big week for markets, as the trade war that everyone has been warning about has finally arrived. Despite what some of our most epic posters might tell you, the trade war is not off ...

Remember when inverted Treasury (UST) yield curves were all the rage? Not that long ago, there was a plethora of stories “hitting the tape” about this development, and with it, the conjecture quotient ...