NORFOLK, Va. — When I started as a professional meteorologist in 1980, long-range hurricane forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) went out three days, or 72 hours. It would be over 20 ...

Weather forecasts have gotten quite good over the years, but their temperatures aren’t always spot on — and the result when they underplay extremes can be lethal. Even a 1-degree difference in a ...

Absolute errorThe numerical difference between a forecasted quantity and the actual result is known as absolute error. If you predict that you'll run a mile in eight ...

Decades of improvements in tropical cyclone forecasting have led to slimmer and more accurate hurricane track cones with this year’s ubiquitous funnel 3% to 5% smaller as compared to 2024. The cone, ...

Due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, weather forecasts, even with ever improving numerical weather prediction models, eventually lose all skill. Meteorologists have a strong desire to better ...